A hybrid integrated deep learning model for the prediction of citywide spatio-temporal flow volumes     

Yibin Ren  Huanfa Chen  Tao Cheng  Yang Zhang  Ge Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(4):802-823

ABSTRACT

The spatio-temporal residual network (ST-ResNet) leverages the power of deep learning (DL) for predicting the volume of citywide spatio-temporal flows. However, this model, neglects the dynamic dependency of the input flows in the temporal dimension, which affects what spatio-temporal features may be captured in the result. This study introduces a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network into the ST-ResNet to form a hybrid integrated-DL model to predict the volumes of citywide spatio-temporal flows (called HIDLST). The new model can dynamically learn the temporal dependency among flows via the feedback connection in the LSTM to improve accurate captures of spatio-temporal features in the flows. We test the HIDLST model by predicting the volumes of citywide taxi flows in Beijing, China. We tune the hyperparameters of the HIDLST model to optimize the prediction accuracy. A comparative study shows that the proposed model consistently outperforms ST-ResNet and several other typical DL-based models on prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we discuss the distribution of prediction errors and the contributions of the different spatio-temporal patterns.  相似文献   

中尺度暖涡对热带气旋强度变化的影响及作用机制   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙佳  王桂华  熊学军  回贞立  胡筱敏  凌征  于龙  杨光兵  郭延良  鞠霞  陈亮 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(8):1-2

基于两组理想化数值试验，对比研究了分布于热带气旋不同位置处的海洋中尺度暖涡所引发的热带气旋强度变化的时空特征。研究发现，热带气旋中心附近的暖涡对热带气旋强度有增强作用，而位于热带气旋外围的暖涡则会抑制热带气旋的发展。本研究将暖涡增强（减弱）热带气旋强度的区域称为内（外）区。随着时间的推移，内（外）区暖涡对热带气旋强度的增强（减弱）幅度逐渐减小（增大），区域范围同步减小（增大）。内区暖涡增强了热带气旋的次级环流和结构对称性、增加了海气界面热通量，同时减弱了外围螺旋雨带，进而导致热带气旋强度增强；若暖涡在外区，其对热带气旋的作用相反，导致热带气旋强度减弱。由于理想化试验中热带气旋静止不动，因此研究结果可能只适用于传播速度较慢的热带气旋。本研究结果有助于更好地理解热带气旋和海洋中尺度暖涡之间的相互作用，并通过引入热带气旋外区暖涡的影响助力提高热带气旋强度预报工作。  相似文献   

海马齿浮床对富营养化海湾营养盐削减的模型评价：以东山湾八尺门养殖海域为例     

刘学海  蒲新明  罗东莲  芦静  刘自力 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(12):91-100

Many coastal seas are severely eutrophic and required to reduce nutrient concentrations to meet a certain water quality standard. We proposed a method for nutrient removal by planting Sesuvium portulacastrum at the water surface using the floating beds in the aquaculture area of the Dongshan Bay as an example, which is an important net-cage culture base in China and where dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphate(DIP) reach 0.75 mg/L and 0.097 mg/L, respectively far exceeding China's Grade IV water quality standards.Numerical simulations were taken using the ecological model, field observations and field plantation experimental results to assess the environmental restoration effects of planting S. portulacastrum at some certain spatial scales. Our field experiments suggested that the herbs can absorb 377 g/m~2 nitrogen and 22.9 g/m~2 phosphorus in eight months with an inserting density of ～60 shoot/m~2. The numerical experiments show that the greater the plantation area is, the more nutrient removal. Plantation in ～12% of the study area could lower nutrients to the required Grade II standards, i.e., 0.2 mg/LDIN≤0.3 mg/L and 0.015 mg/LDIP≤0.03 mg/L.Here the phytoremediation method and results provide helpful references for environmental restoration in other eutrophic seas.  相似文献   

春季季风间期赤道东印度洋浮游植物光合生理特征     

袁超  徐宗军  张学雷  韦钦胜  王辉武  王宗灵 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(6):83-91

Phytoplankton physiologies are dynamic and have sensitive responses to the ambient environment. In this paper,we examine photosynthetic physiologies of phytoplankton communities with Phyto-PAM in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during the spring inter-monsoon. Environmental parameters were measured to investigate the coupling between phytoplankton photosynthetic physiologies and their habitats. During the cruise, the water column was highly stratified. The mixed layer extended to about 75 m and was characterized by high temperature(28°C) and low nutrient level. The F_v/F_m values and chlorophyll a(Chl a) concentrations were lower at the surface, as consequences of nutrient depletion and photo-inhibition. Subsurface Chl a maximum(SCM) occurred between 75 and 100 m, and had the highest F_v/F_m values. The formation of SCM was a balance between nutrient availability and light limitation. The SCM may contribute significantly to pelagic food web and primary production in the water column. Phytoplankton in different layers encountered different light, trophic and hydrographic dynamics and evolved distinct photosynthetic characteristics. Despite of co-limitation of nutrient limitation and photo-inhibition, phytoplankton in the surface layer showed their acclimation to high irradiance, had lower light utilization efficiencies(α: 0.061±0.032) and could exploit a wide range of light irradiance. Whereas, phytoplankton in the SCM layers presented the highest light utilization efficiencies(α:0.146±0.48), which guaranteed higher photosynthetic capacities under low light level. These results provide insights into phytoplankton photo-adaption strategies in this less explored region.  相似文献   

南黄海西部36°N断面生态环境特征及其季节变化   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

韦钦胜  葛人峰  李瑞香  臧家业 《海洋学报》2011,33(5):61-72

重点研究了南黄海西部36°N断面水文、生源要素的四季变化特征,阐明了该断面诸参数四季变化的主控因素,并以此反映和指示了与其相关海域的生态环境特征.结果表明:黄海冷水团及黄海暖流具有季节性演替变化规律;秋季跃层以下水体是一部分夏季冷水团残留水和黄海暖流水的混合水;断面西侧在四季均存在小范围的低盐冷水现象(即青岛冷水团),...  相似文献   

吕宋海峡内波吸引子的三维数值模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王刚  郑全安  林敏  戴德君  乔方利 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(11):14-21

Internal waves propagate along wave beams that are inclined with respect to the horizontal plane. It is conjectured that the internal waves generated in the Luzon Strait may be confined between the double ridges in the strait and concentrate to a closed trajectory, the so-called internal wave attractor, due to the reflection of wave beams from the lateral boundaries, sea surface and bottom. This work carried out two experiments using a three dimensional non-hydrostatic general circulation model, MITgcm, to investigate the possibility that the ridges in the Luzon Strait allows for internal wave attractors. Baroclinic current in both of the experiments demonstrate the forming of ring-like patterns in some section around 20° and 21°N, indicating that the development of the internal wave attractors are allowed in the Luzon Strait. The different resolutions and initial conditions in the two experiments also reveal that the internal-wave-attractor phenomenon is robust in this region.  相似文献   

利用浅海的声传播损失反演海面风速          下载免费PDF全文

刘洪宁  吕连港  杨光兵  姜莹  杨春梅  刘宗伟 《海洋科学进展》2015,33(2):164-172

声信号在浅海环境传播时,经过海面风浪的不断散射,传播损失会相应改变。本文通过分析声传播损失计算海面波高,利用风浪充分成长时波高与风速的关系,对海面风速进行反演,并针对声速剖面在有无跃层两种情况下反演过程的异同进行讨论。利用模拟仿真与2013年黄海声传播实验数据对其进行了验证,结果表明此方法是有效的。  相似文献   

Reconstruction of eddies by assimilating satellite altimeter data into Princeton Ocean Model   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

YIN Xunqiang  QIAO Fangli  XIA Changshui  L&#; Xin''gang  YANG Yongzeng 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(1):1-11

An optimal interpolation assimilation model for satellite altimetry data is developed based on Princeton Ocean Model (POM), which is applied in a quasi-global domain, by the method of isotropic correlation between sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea temperature anomaly. The perfor- mance of this assimilation model is validated by the modeled results of SLA and the current patterns. Comparisons between modeling and satellite data show that both the magnitudes and distribution patterns of the simulated SLA are improved by assimilation. The most signiˉcant improvement is that meso-scale systems, e.g., eddies, are well reconstructed. The evolution of an eddy located in the northwest Paciˉc Ocean is traced by using the assimilation model. Model results show that during three months the eddy migrated southwestward for about 6 degrees before merging into the Kuroshio. The three dimensional structure of this eddy on 12 August 2001 is further analyzed. The strength of this warm, cyclonic eddy decreases with the increase of depth. The eddy shows di?erent horizontal patterns at di?erent layers, and the SLA and temperature ˉelds agree with each other well. This study suggests that this kind of data assimilation is economic and reliable for eddy reconstruction, and can be used as a promising technique in further studies of ocean eddies as well as other ˉne circulation structures.  相似文献   

Predicting the East Australian Current     

《Ocean Modelling》2011,39(3-4):251-266

Results are presented from an ensemble prediction study (EPS) of the East Australian Current (EAC) with a specific focus on the examination of the role of dynamical instabilities and flow dependent growing errors. The region where the EAC separates from the coast, is characterized by significant mesoscale eddy variability, meandering and is dominated by nonlinear dynamics thereby representing a severe challenge for operational forecasting. Using analyses from OceanMAPS, the Australian operational ocean forecast system, we explore the structures of flow dependent forecast errors over 7 days and examine the role of dynamical instabilities. Forecast ensemble perturbations are generated using the method of bred vectors allowing the identification of those perturbations to a given initial state that grow most rapidly. We consider a 6 month period spanning the Austral summer that corresponds to the season of maximum eddy variability. We find that the bred vector (BV) structures occur in areas of instability where forecast errors are large and in particular in regions associated with the Tasman Front and EAC extension. We also find that very few BVs are required to identify these regions of large forecast error and on that basis we expect that even a small BV ensemble would prove useful for adaptive sampling and targeted observations. The results presented also suggest that it may be beneficial to supplement the static background error covariances typically used in operational ocean data assimilation systems with flow dependent background errors calculated using a relatively cheap EPS.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal oscillation of the southwest monsoon over Sri Lanka and evaluation of its subseasonal forecast skill          下载免费PDF全文

L.A.D.Buddika Bandurathna  Lu Wang  Xuan Zhou  Yifeng Cheng  Lin Chen 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(6):7-13

斯里兰卡的雨季发生于5-9月间,主要受西南季风的控制.本文发现该地区的西南季风降水存在很强的次季节变率,主导周期为10-35天.降水的季节内变化与西传的异常气旋有关.进一步,利用S2S比较计划中欧洲中心的数值预报模式(ECMWF)提供的回报试验数据,评估了当今动力模式对斯里兰卡西南季风次季节变化的预报技巧.结果显示,对季风指数的预测技巧超过30天,而对降水指数的预测技巧大约两周,且模式的预报技巧具有明显的年际差异.分析表明,能否正确模拟出大尺度环流对热带对流的响应是影响斯里兰卡降水预测的重要因子.  相似文献